China/Russia Double Cross? I’d worry if I were them…

 


War may be coming. But maybe, just maybe, China and Russia ought to think a bit before rushing in.


I write this in early December, and as I do so, more and more analysts are saying that Russia will attack Ukraine fairly soon, and it isn’t at all clear what we could do to stop it. (In fact, an attack may have already happened by the time you see this. As I say, I’m doing this in early December.)


Personally, I’m guessing that the situation is even worse than we think.  I’m guessing that if Russia attacks Ukraine, it will be in coordination with a Chinese attack on Taiwan. That way, even if the West wanted to respond militarily—and I’m not sure we do—we would face aggression in two separate locations. We’d have to divide our forces, or even face a two-front war if things really got out of hand.


So, I’m afraid things could get very nasty indeed, particularly if China and Russia wished to hand the United States — and the Biden Administration, to the great benefit of their friend Trump — a major military humiliation.


Yet, if I were China or Russia, I might think about this scenario a little bit. To wit, how far could you really trust your partners? China and Russia share a border, after all, and they haven’t always agreed on things. Sure, they’re friendly now, but they have had incidents.


So, if one of them wanted to damage the other…as well as the United States…well, it would be relatively simple to pretend to be about to attack Ukraine or Taiwan, and then, at the last minute, not do so. The other partner in the agreement would thus be left to face the West’s fury on its own. Thus, say, Russia might seize all or most of Ukraine, but it would be looking at NATO’s extreme displeasure, or China might easily seize Taiwan, but it would then be the focus of the collective fury of the US, UK, Australia alliance.


My point? Simply this: there is no honor among thieves. And even less between Xi and Putin. 


So, if I were China or Russia, I’d be careful. And maybe wondering if a frontal assault might lead, as well, to a knife in the back. 



~mjt




Copyright©2021 Michael Jay Tucker

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