The Taliban…problems, they’ve got problems
So I read on the web that the Taliban have claimed final victory in Afghanistan. They say they have finally ended the resistance in Panjshir province.(1) That may be true, but also, the more I look at their situation, the more I think the Taliban have serious problems…maybe fatal problems.
They are now without money. That is, they are very short of hard currency, as is the whole country of Afghanistan.(2) For a very long time, the nation was supported by American capital, but nobody is exactly rushing in to take the place of the U.S. (China may, but that is still in the future, and Chinese money comes with strings attached.)
They are now almost completely surrounded by nations that don’t exactly love them. Iran has sort of supported them, yes, but it has a very different version of Islamic revolution to export, and now sees the Taliban as rival. Pakistan has been the Taliban’s ardent champion for decades, but that may change. The Pakistani government is now wrestling with the fact that its support for the Taliban has encouraged Jihadist activity at home, aimed against itself.(3)
And, also, the country now is in the midst of the biggest brain drain in history. Virtually the whole of the nation’s professional class…anyone who knows how to run a modern economy and a modern country…has either already gotten out of the nation, or is planning to do so.(4) This is doubly true for educated women, who — even if they want to stay — will be unable to employ their skills in the service of their nation and their people.(5)
What does all this mean? It means, I think, that the Taliban will not survive. Oh, there may be a regime ruling Afghanistan which calls itself “the Taliban,” but I don’t think it will be the same organization. Not really. It will be another sort of government…maybe not better than the one that came before, maybe not one that we in the West would support…but it will be different. It will have to be. To survive in the real world, it will have to make concessions to reality.
And for a regime that came to power promising the fantasy of a religious utopia…
That will hurt …
It will hurt worse than fire, or bombs, or, indeed, all the military defeats…
Of history.
Copyright©2021 Michael Jay Tucker
Please visit my webpage at: https://www.michaeljaytucker.com/
1. Taliban claims ‘complete capture’ of Afghanistan’s Panjshir, Aljazeera, 6 Sept 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/6/taliban-afghanistan-panjshir-resistance-nrf-ceasefire
2. Short on Money, Legal and Otherwise, the Taliban Face a Crisis, by Alexandra Stevenson, New York Times, Sep 2, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/02/business/economy/afghanistan-taliban-financial-crisis.html
3. After jubilation, Pakistan faces dilemma as Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan inspires religious militants, by Gerry Shih, Shaiq Hussain, and Haq Nawaz Khan. Washington Post, September 5, 2021 at 12:36 p.m. EDT. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/05/pakistan-taliban-afghanistan/
Also see, Pakistan’s Pyrrhic Victory in Afghanistan: Islamabad Will Come to Regret Aiding the Taliban’s Resurgence, By Husain Haqqani, July 22, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-07-22/pakistans-pyrrhic-victory-afghanistan
4. ‘We’re losing the best’: Afghanistan faces a massive brain drain as its people flee, By Nabih Bulos, LA Times, Aug. 27, 2021 10:04 AM PT. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-27/afghanistan-brain-drain-taliban-takeover
5. The Women Burning Their Degree Certificates, by By Yasmeen Serhan, The Atlantic, Sep 3 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/09/afghanistan-brain-drain/619959/
Comments
Post a Comment